The countries of the Western Balkans stand at a turning point in their energy transition. For decades, their economies have relied heavily on coal and imported fuels. Now, as Europe accelerates its move toward cleaner power, the region faces a choice: invest billions in new gas infrastructure, or skip that step and jump directly into a renewable-powered future.
A new analysis from Global Energy Monitor suggests that the second path is not only possible, but also more affordable and sustainable. According to the report, the six countries of the Western Balkans — Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia — have a combined 23 gigawatts of prospective solar and wind projects on the horizon. That’s more than 15 times the renewable capacity currently in operation, and enough to generate four times more electricity over their lifetimes than planned gas plants would deliver.
The implications are striking. By prioritizing solar and wind over gas, the region could save more than €9 billion in energy costs and avoid 103 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions — nearly equivalent to the region’s entire CO₂ output in 2022. For governments seeking both energy security and economic stability, those numbers are difficult to ignore.
Why Skipping Gas Makes Sense
Gas has often been framed as a “transition fuel” — a cleaner bridge between coal and renewables. But for the Western Balkans, the bridge may not be necessary. Building gas infrastructure is costly, risky, and locks countries into decades of fossil dependence at a time when Europe is rapidly phasing it out.
Renewables, by contrast, are getting cheaper by the year. Utility-scale solar and wind are already among the lowest-cost options for new power generation. Unlike gas, they don’t depend on volatile global fuel markets or geopolitically sensitive pipelines. Every megawatt of solar or wind installed locally means less reliance on imported energy and more resilience against price shocks.
Spotlight on Albania
Among the Western Balkan countries, Albania occupies a unique position in the energy landscape. Unlike its neighbors, Albania already relies almost entirely on renewable power — around 95% of its electricity comes from hydropower. This gives the country a head start in the clean energy transition, but also exposes it to risks: dry years and fluctuating rainfall leave the system vulnerable, often forcing Albania to import electricity at high market prices.
This is where solar and wind can play a transformative role. By diversifying its renewable mix, Albania can reduce dependence on hydrology and strengthen energy security. The government has already launched competitive auctions for large-scale solar projects, including the Karavasta Solar Park (140 MW) and Spitalla Solar Park (100 MW), developed in partnership with international investors. Smaller wind projects are also emerging, with several gigawatts of capacity in various stages of planning.
There is also growing interest in rooftop solar for households and businesses, driven by high energy prices and EU-aligned policies. However, as with the wider region, grid infrastructure remains a weak point. Without investments in transmission and storage, Albania may struggle to integrate higher shares of variable renewables.
Importantly, Albania has not yet committed heavily to natural gas as part of its energy strategy. While some policymakers see gas — via the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) crossing its territory — as a potential backup, the scale of investment needed to build power plants and distribution infrastructure makes this path far less attractive than scaling up renewables. In many ways, Albania is already leapfrogging gas simply by focusing directly on solar and wind.
The Bottlenecks
Despite huge potential, the pace of renewable development across the Western Balkans, including Albania, is slower than needed. Only a small fraction of announced projects are under construction. Developers face slow and complicated permitting processes, patchy regulatory frameworks, and outdated grids that cannot yet handle large shares of solar and wind.
Financing is another hurdle. International lenders such as the EBRD and IFC are active in Albania, but private investors still want stronger guarantees of policy stability and market transparency. Ensuring that renewable projects are developed with local communities in mind — avoiding land conflicts and protecting biodiversity — will also be key to building public support.
A Strategic Opportunity
If the Western Balkans can overcome these challenges, the rewards could be transformational. Countries like Serbia lead in prospective capacity, but Albania’s head start in renewables and its relatively clean energy mix could allow it to position itself as a regional leader in green power diversification.
Cheaper electricity would ease the burden on households and industries. Cleaner air would improve public health. And greater independence from imported fuels would strengthen national security. By skipping the gas stage, the region can avoid stranded assets and future-proof its energy systems against the tightening climate policies of the European Union.
The Way Forward
For Albania and its neighbors, the path is clear:
- Streamline permitting to fast-track solar and wind projects.
- Invest in grid upgrades and storage to handle variable renewables.
- Offer stable frameworks for investors, with transparent auctions and long-term contracts.
- Engage with the EU, tapping into financing and policy support through the Green Deal and Just Transition mechanisms.
The choice is simple: lock in decades of fossil dependency, or leap directly into a cleaner, cheaper, and more secure energy future. For Albania — and the Western Balkans as a whole — the leapfrog option isn’t just possible. It may be the smartest move they can make.